Affordability Improves, but Confidence Remains Absent
The GTA housing market remains under pressure as we move into 2026. Sales, prices, and listings are all trending lower on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. It reinforcing what many buyers and sellers are already feeling on the ground: this is still a gloomy market, with no clear recovery in sight.
January 2026 at a Glance
- Sales: 3,082 (▼ 19.3% year-over-year)
- New Listings: 10.774 (▼ 13.3%)
- Active Listings: 17.975 (▲ 8.1%)
- Avg. Days On Market: 67 days (▲ 21.8%)
- Months of Inventory: 5.83 (▲ 30.7%)
- Average Price: $973,289 (▼ 6.5%)
- Median Price: $840,000 (▼ 7.7%)
The slowdown is particularly obvious in the condo market.
- Condo apartment months of inventory is approaching 8 months, near record-high levels
- Across all property types, average days on market sits around 67 days
Listings are still piling up faster than buyers are absorbing them, keeping pressure on prices and extending selling timelines.
Interest Rates Aren’t the Problem
In January, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, resulting in little change to mortgage rates.
While rates have stabilized, declining home prices and rising incomes have modestly improved housing affordability. In fact, affordability has now returned to pre-pandemic levels, an important milestone.
Historically, this level of affordability has coincided with periods of strong market activity.
Yet… activity hasn’t followed.
This disconnect reinforces a key reality: affordability alone isn’t enough to restart the market. Buyers remain hesitant, waiting for clearer economic signals and greater confidence that prices have stabilized.
No Sugarcoating the Outlook
It’s important to be honest.
This is a gloomy market, particularly for condos. There is no visible catalyst for a near-term recovery, and until demand meaningfully improves, inventory remains elevated, and prices find firmer footing. These market conditions are unlikely to change in a material way.
That doesn’t mean there are no opportunities, but it does mean strategy matters more than ever.
Thinking of Making a Move?
Every neighbourhood is moving differently. Let’s review your area’s data and craft a plan that best suited for your family and financial goals. Book your private market review and discover where the real opportunities are.
📱 Phone: 647-504-0690
📧 Email: steven@mistersauga.ca
Your Trusted Partner in the GTA Real Estate Journey