Remember When 20+ Offers Were the Norm?
If you’ve been in the market for a few years, you probably remember offer nights like these.
19 offers.
29 offers.
Even 39 offers on a 1+1 condo townhouse!
Those days feel like a lifetime ago. Fast forward to today, and buyers have far more negotiating power than they did during the 2021–2022 frenzy. But as we’ve always said, real estate moves in cycles. Every market is temporary.
So, where are we today?
The Market Continues to Tighten
June was another encouraging month for the GTA housing market. There were 6,770 home sales in June, up 9.4% compared to the same month last year. At the same time, new listings declined 12.9%, giving buyers fewer options than we’ve seen over the past few years.
The average selling price was $1,058,658, down 3.9% year-over-year, although prices edged up slightly compared to May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
These are positive signs, but it’s important to keep them in perspective. Sales are improving from historically low levels. While activity is picking up, we’re still nowhere near the overheated conditions of 2021.
Why Are Fewer People Selling?
Many homeowners who purchased or refinanced during the 2021 peak are now facing mortgage renewals at much higher interest rates. A year ago, many expected this would trigger a wave of listings.
That hasn’t happened. Instead, many owners are choosing to hold on. Some are adjusting their budgets, extending amortizations, or simply waiting for better market conditions rather than selling at today’s prices.
As a result, inventory continues to tighten, helping the market gradually move toward a healthier balance.
Low-Rise Homes Continue to Lead
Low-rise homes continue to outperform the rest of the market. Detached, semi-detached, and freehold townhomes are benefiting from reduced inventory, and well-priced homes are attracting stronger buyer interest than they were earlier this year.
While GTA prices are still below last year’s levels, the pace of decline has slowed considerably.
We’re also starting to see pockets of strength. In parts of Mississauga, Oakville, and Burlington, modest price increases are already appearing. As we’ve been out with buyers over the past few months, we’ve also seen more bidding situations, stronger offers, and shorter days on market for desirable homes.
Nothing close to the craziness of 2021, but certainly more competitive than it was six months ago.
Condominiums Continue to Face Challenges
The condo market remains a different story. Sales have improved compared to last year, but prices continue to face downward pressure due to the large amount of inventory still available. The rental market has also softened, making it more challenging for investors to cash flow their properties.
Buyers still have plenty of choice, which means pricing, presentation, and marketing remain critical for sellers.
Looking Ahead
Inventory is gradually tightening, and sales continue to improve. However, the GTA remains firmly in a buyer’s market, with prices still under pressure. With the spring market now behind us, we may see some additional price declines in the months ahead.
That said, I believe the market will continue its gradual recovery, moving toward a more balanced, healthy, and sustainable market.
As always, every neighbourhood is different. GTA-wide statistics provide valuable context, but pricing and competition can vary dramatically from one community to another.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling, understanding what’s happening in your neighbourhood is far more valuable than relying on broad market averages.