August 2026 GTA Market at a Glance
- 5,057 sales | ↓ 2.1% year-over-year
- 12,075 new listings | ↓ 14.1%
- $993,410 average price | ↓ 2.7%
- MLS HPI benchmark | ↓ 4.5%
At first glance, there are some encouraging signs: inventory is tightening and price declines are becoming less severe. But underneath those numbers, August also showed that buyers remain cautious.
Buyers Hit Pause in August
New listings fell 14.1% compared with last year, considerably faster than the decline in sales.
For much of the past year, buyers had an unusually large number of homes to choose from. As sellers begin pulling listings or delaying their plans, that excess inventory is gradually being absorbed.
In theory, fewer homes for sale should create more competition among buyers and eventually provide support for prices.
But we’re not there yet. Compared with July, months of inventory actually increased:
Houses: 4.0 → 4.5 months
Condos: 5.3 → 5.9 months
Even though fewer properties were available, sales weakened faster than inventory. In other words, supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious.
Prices Are Stabilizing… But They’re Not Rising Yet
There are some encouraging signs on prices.
The August average selling price was $993,410, down 2.7% compared with last August. That’s a smaller decline than we were seeing earlier in the year.
August Sales & Average Price by Home Type
| Home Type | Sales | Average Price | YoY Price Change |
| Detached | 2,399 | $1,288,669 |
-1.8%
|
| Semi-Detached | 439 | $931,665 |
-5.0%
|
| Townhouse | 832 | $786,817 |
-8.6%
|
| Condo Apartment | 1,330 | $617,593 |
-3.6%
|
The market isn’t moving uniformly. Detached homes held up relatively well. Townhouses saw a much larger 8.6% decline, while semi-detached homes were down 5.0% and condos 3.6%.
TRREB points to the possibility that tightening inventory could eventually lead to renewed price growth. That could happen particularly if buyers return while inventory remains constrained, however the current numbers don’t show that yet.
What Does This Mean for Buyers?
Buyers should pay attention to inventory. If listings continue declining while sales begin recovering during the fall, today’s negotiating environment could gradually become more competitive. In fact, we’re already seeing this happen in certain pockets and neighbourhoods of the GTA.
Real estate is local. A GTA-wide buyer’s market doesn’t mean every neighbourhood, price range or property type behaves the same way.
That doesn’t mean buyers should rush. It means financially ready buyers should be prepared to move when the right property appears, rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom.
What Does This Mean for Sellers?
Fewer listings don’t automatically create buyers. August showed us exactly that.
Properties that are well presented and priced appropriately can still sell, but buyers have become extremely value-conscious. We are seeing some listings get multiple offers. However, the prices are still often below seller’s expectations.
Overpricing a property and waiting for the market to catch up remains a risky strategy.
In this market, your first impression (including your initial asking price) matters.
September Will Be the Real Test
September marks the beginning of the GTA fall market, when we would normally expect activity to pick up as buyers and sellers return from the summer.
I’ll be watching four things closely:
- Sales activity: Do buyers return for the fall market?
- Months of inventory: Does MOI move back down after increasing in August?
- New listings: Do sellers return in September, or does inventory continue tightening?
- Prices: Do the HPI and median price stabilize, or does renewed weakness appear?
If sales recover while inventory remains constrained, we could see the market move closer to balance and put a firmer floor under prices.
If buyers remain on the sidelines even as the fall market gets underway, August’s slowdown will look much more significant.
For now, the market is improving in some areas, but the recovery remains fragile. Now we get to see what the fall market brings.
As always, every neighbourhood behaves differently. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s look at what’s happening in your specific area before making your next move.