September marks the beginning of the fall market and is typically when activity picks up after the slower summer months. Instead, GTA home sales remained virtually unchanged from August and fell 9% compared to last September.
- Sales: 5,040 (-9.0% YoY)
- Average Price: $1,006,409 (-5.1% YoY)
- Median Price: $860,000 (-5.8% YoY)
- New Listings: 16,500 (-14.4% YoY)
- Active Listings: 26,131 (-9.3% YoY)
- HPI Benchmark: -4.7% YoY
*HPI Benchmark adjusts for differences (property type, size, bedrooms etc)between homes, giving us a clearer picture of whether home values are actually rising or falling.
Sales & Average Price by Major Home Type
| Sales | YoY % Change | Avg. Price | YoY % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,399 | -8.7% | $1,292,016 | -5.1% |
| Semi-Detached | 459 | -8.2% | $1,015,202 | -0.2% |
| Townhouse | 803 | -12.8% | $820,637 | -4.6% |
| Condo Apt | 1,316 | -7.8% | $605,257 | -7.7% |
The Expected Fall Bounce Didn’t Happen
The spring market showed some signs of recovery, but that momentum has faded.
Normally, house sales increase about 4% from August to September. This year, they increased just 1%. Buyers are still hesitant.
Economic uncertainty, concerns about employment and renewed pressure on borrowing costs are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. At the time of writing, 5-year fixed mortgage rates are around 4.5%, making affordability a challenge despite lower home prices.
But Sellers Are Pulling Back Too
This is what is preventing the market from deteriorating more quickly. New listings were down 14.4% year-over-year, while active inventory was down 9.3%. Months of inventory currently sit around:
- Low Rise Houses: 4.82 months
- Condo Apartments: 6.25 months
So while demand remains weak, supply isn’t piling up the way it was earlier in the downturn. That is helping prices drift lower rather than fall sharply.
Condos Remain the Weakest Part of the Market
The condo market continues to show the most weakness. Only 1,316 condos sold in September, down 7.8% from last year, while the median condo price fell to $520,000, down 9.6% year-over-year.
Compare this to the peak of the GTA condo market:
- 3,821 condos sold in March 2021 — today’s sales volume is about 66% lower.
- Average prices reached $740,000 in March 2022 — today’s median price is about 30% lower.
That is a significant amount of demand and value shed from the peak.
And with 6.1 months of inventory, condos remain firmly in buyer’s-market territory. Though not all condos are being affected equally. Investor-focused units are facing even greater challenges, including small one-bedroom and studio units, buildings with a high concentration of rentals, and buildings that allow short-term rentals. These properties are competing for a smaller pool of both end-users and investors, making them more difficult to sell in today’s market.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
For buyers:
You continue to have negotiating power, particularly in the condo market and with properties that have been sitting. But don’t assume every seller is desperate. Lower inventory means well-priced homes can still attract competition. The reality is many sellers are over priced and listing agents are just following the sellers instructions. We have had 3 buyers successfully buy because we were able to communicate to the listing agent where our offer pricing is coming from with recent sales comparables and standing firm with a fair offer.
For sellers:
Pricing correctly from day one is increasingly important. Buyers have choices and are extremely price-sensitive. Listings that chase yesterday’s prices risk sitting, while properly priced homes are getting the attention.
What I’m Watching Next
Earlier this year, falling inventory and improving sales gave us reasons to believe the GTA market was gradually moving toward balance. September makes that recovery look less certain.
Sales are weakening again, prices remain below last year, and buyers have not returned in meaningful numbers. At the same time, sellers are also stepping back, preventing inventory from building rapidly.
The biggest question heading into the final months of 2026 is demand. Buyers need confidence in their jobs, the economy and borrowing costs before that demand turns into actual sales