Although the year-over-year numbers appear weak, the early signs of the spring market are beginning to emerge.
Compared to January:
• Sales increased roughly 25% month-over-month
• Average prices increased about 3.7%
This seasonal lift is typical as buyers return to the market after the winter slowdown. However, compared to a normal February or early spring market, activity levels remain well below historical norms.
Spring is usually the most active time of the year for real estate. The fact that activity remains subdued highlights how cautious buyers continue to be in the current environment.
Condo Townhouses Showing an Interesting Shift
One segment that stood out in February was the condo townhouse market.
Sales in this category:
• Jumped 36% compared to January
• Increased 11% compared to February last year
While most other housing segments saw year-over-year declines in sales, condo townhouses appear to be gaining traction as buyers search for more affordable ownership options.
However, despite the increased activity, prices across most housing types are still trending downward overall.
Strong Demand Still Exists, But It’s Waiting
TRREB estimates that more than 100,000 potential buyers are currently sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market.
Many of these buyers are watching for two things: price stability and improved economic confidence.
If both appear, analysts believe we could see meaningful momentum in sales activity during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
Competitive Micro-Markets Are Emerging
Despite the broader slowdown, some neighbourhoods remain highly competitive.
In certain pockets of GTA, well-priced homes in desirable school districts or family-oriented neighbourhoods are still selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers. I am seeing that with our buyers, and it’s very interesting and sometimes a surprise to them.
These areas tend to share similar characteristics: limited housing turnover, strong schools, family-oriented communities and low inventory.
When supply is limited in these areas, competition can feel intense even while the broader market remains slow.
Local Example: Buyers Are Still Active
My own condo was listed in early March and received an offer within just a few days.
This reflects a pattern we are seeing across the GTA: buyers are still in the market, but they are becoming far more selective and strategic in their decisions.
Canada’s $50,000 Rebate for First-Time Buyers is NOW LAW
Bill C-4 received Royal Assent on March 12, 2026, introducing a new federal rebate that allows eligible first-time buyers to recover the 5% GST on qualifying newly built homes.
Key highlights:
- Up to $50,000 rebate for homes priced up to $1 million
- Partial rebate available for homes priced $1M–$1.5M
- Applies to new construction or substantially renovated homes only (not resale)
- Available for purchase agreements signed on or after March 20, 2025, and the program runs until 2030
For example, buyers could receive: $25,000 rebate on a $500,000 home, $37,500 rebate on a $750,000 home, and $50,000 rebate on a $1,000,000 home. This is a major expansion from the previous GST New Housing Rebate, which capped savings at about $6,300.
Ontario may also introduce an expanded provincial HST rebate, which could potentially bring total savings to as much as $130,000 for eligible buyers.
Because the rebate only applies to newly built homes, its direct impact on the resale market will likely be limited in the short term.
➡️ For a full breakdown of how the rebate works, read the detailed guide here: Mistersauga.ca/bill-c4-fthb-first-time-home-buyer-gst-hst-rebate/
What This Means Moving Forward
Overall, the GTA housing market remains slow but relatively stable. Sales activity is still subdued and prices continue to adjust, but we are beginning to see early signs of seasonal momentum as we move into the spring market.
The key trend right now is selective demand.
Buyers are still active, but they are being much more thoughtful about their decisions. Properties that are well-priced, located in desirable neighbourhoods, and suited for long-term living are still attracting strong interest. Meanwhile, listings that miss the mark on pricing or condition are taking longer to sell.
In other words, this is no longer a market where anything sells easily. Strategy matters more than ever.
Thinking of Making a Move?
If you are trying to understand what the current market means for you, feel free to reach out. I’m always happy to talk through your specific situation and help you plan the next steps.
Book your private market review and discover where the real opportunities are.
📱 Phone: 647-504-0690
📧 Email: steven@mistersauga.ca
Your Trusted Partner in the GTA Real Estate Journey