As we approach the end of 2025, I can’t help but think about how differently this year is wrapping up compared to 2024.
Last year at this time, the energy in the market was surprisingly positive. Buyers were eager, trying to get ahead of what many believed would be a competitive spring. Sellers felt confident too, holding firm on price, expecting that a bit of patience would reward them.
This year? A completely different story.
How We Got Here
On February 1st, when Trump announced plans for 25% tariffs on Canada, the reaction in the GTA housing market was almost immediate. Confidence softened. Conversations shifted from, “When should I buy?” to “Should I wait and see what happens?” And that hesitation carried throughout the year.
We felt it in the numbers:
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Sales took a sharp turn in February, it was down 28% year over year, and never regained momentum.
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By year end, the GTA is on track for roughly 62,500 home sales, about 10% lower than last year.
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That would make 2025 the quietest year for transactions in roughly 25 years.
This slowdown in demand collided with a steady flow of new listings. As fewer buyers stepped forward, inventory climbed and stayed high. By summer, the imbalance finally pushed prices down, particularly in the low-rise segment.
Today, the average low-rise home is selling for 8% less than a year ago, and sellers who were holding out earlier in the year have shifted their expectations. Many are pricing more competitively, especially those planning to sell first, buy after.
In a buyers market, you want the assurance of being sold so you know what your budget is exactly and then go take advantage of the quieter market with better opportunities and have less competition on the buy side.
Condos, meanwhile, continue to face their own challenges: investor pullback, higher borrowing costs, and growing supply. Both segments are firmly in buyer’s-market territory.
Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024
GTA Market Overview |
2025 | 2024 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,010 | 5,947 | -15.8% |
| New Listings | 11,134 | 11,602 | -4.0% |
| Active Listings | 24,549 | 21,021 | -15.8% |
| Average Price | $1,039,458 | $1,110,415 | -6.4% |
| Avg. PD0M | 56 days | 48 days | +9.7% |
| MOI | 4.90 | 3.71 | +32.1% |
Low-Rise Houses vs. Condo Apartments
| Low-Rise Houses | Condos (Apts.) | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | 3,648 | 1,299 |
| Average Price | $1,178,036 | $663,290 |
| New Listings | 7,595 | 3,401 |
| Active Listings | 16,075 | 8,225 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 25–35 days | 41 days |
| MOI | 4.41 | 6.33 |
This is the first time in years where both segments are simultaneously experiencing sustained buyer’s-market conditions.
What This Means Heading Into 2026
The key question for 2026 is simple: Will uncertainty continue to hold buyers back?
Inventory is still building, and unless we see a meaningful shift in the broader economy, employment stability, confidence in trade and policy, and continued improvement in interest rates to list a few, downward price pressure will likely continue into early 2026.
But here’s what matters for buyers and sellers right now:
For Buyers:
This is one of the most favourable markets we’ve seen in over a decade. More selection, more negotiating room, and less competition. Smart buying strategies are rewarded in markets like this.
For Sellers:
Pricing and positioning matter more than ever. Homes that are priced according to today’s market, not last year’s, are still selling well. And if you’re planning to buy after you sell, a slower market can actually work in your favour.
Thinking of Making a Move?
Every neighbourhood is moving differently. Let’s review your area’s data and craft a plan that fits the market today, not last year’s headlines. Book your private market review and discover where the real opportunities are.
📱 Phone: 647-504-0690
📧 Email: steven@mistersauga.ca
Your Trusted Partner in the GTA Real Estate Journey