I truly wish I could share better news this month, but we’re still experiencing downward trends in the GTA market.
Many of you reading this are hoping for the market to recover. After all, real estate is more than just where we live. It represents our future, our retirement, and for many, our biggest investment. We all want to see prices stabilize and our economy stay strong.
I’ll keep this month’s report short, as the data hasn’t shifted dramatically over the past couple of months. What I do want to emphasize is that if you need to buy, now is a good time to start considering your options.
Mortgage rates have dropped back below 4% and could move even lower next year. See the section below where I explain why this could matter for your next move.
For those who are considering buying or selling, I can help you run the numbers to see what makes the most sense for your situation and connect you with trusted mortgage advisors for renewals or pre-approvals. People still need homes to live in — real estate is never dead, it simply evolves and I’m here to help you navigate through it.
No matter your situation, I’m here to give you my most honest opinion. I’ll never push you to buy if renting is the smarter choice. While some agents promoted pre-construction condo investments, I cautioned my clients to hold back and many are now grateful they did.
My focus has always been on building lifelong relationships and help you make informed decisions to grow long-term, generational wealth.
Mortgage Turning Point: The 4% Threshold
After four rate cuts this year (and 9th cut since June 2024), the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate now sits at 2.25%, bringing mortgage rates back near 4% — a level many analysts consider the market’s “golden number”.
At this rate, the cost of owning versus renting in the GTA is nearly balanced.
For investors and renters, 4% represents the balance point where borrowing costs and rental yields finally align. This shift could reshape affordability and investor activity in the months ahead.
Wonder how the numbers work? Go read in detail: 4% Mortgage Rate: The Turning Point for Toronto’s Housing Market
Buyers Remain in Control as Prices Ease and Confidence Wavers
By the Numbers: GTA Market Snapshot – October 2025
- Average Sale Price: $1,054,372 ▼ 7.2% year-over-year
- # of Sales: 6,138 ▼ 9.5%
- New Listings: 16,069 ▲ 2.7%
- Months of Inventory (MOI): 4.53 ▲ 23.1%
- Average Days on Market: 50 days ▲ 16.3%
Sentiment in the GTA housing market remains cautious. Buyers who are active today are focused on value and opportunity.
Sales & Prices by Home Type
| Home Type | Sales | YoY % Change | Avg. Price | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,856 | -11.0% | $1,355,506 | -7.3% |
| Semi-Detached | 595 | -2.8% | $1,033,770 | -6.5% |
| Townhouse | 1,052 | -8.5% | $846,105 | -8.3% |
| Condo Apartment | 1,558 | -11.0% | $660,208 | -4.7% |
On BrokerBay, the platform realtors use to book showings and present offers, their data continues to show many buyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Using Mississauga as an example, showings are down 18% year-over-year, offers are down 22%, and the average number of showings before a property sells is now around 25 showings which is a 26% increase from last year.
For most of the past three years, sales volumes have hovered near 20-year lows. The short-lived rebound in late 2024 driven by optimism surrounding lower interest rates has faded as economic uncertainty keeps many potential buyers on the sidelines.
Condo Market: Gradual Softening Continues
Condo activity mirrored the low-rise market. Sales were down 11% year-over-year in October, with the average price at $660,208 (-4.7%).
The median condo price was $565,000, roughly 24% below the market peak of $740,000 seen in early 2022. In just three years, many condo owners have seen their property values drop by about a quarter, a sobering reminder of how much the market has adjusted.
The Bottom Line
The GTA housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs and slower economic momentum, creating opportunities for patient buyers and challenges for sellers.
For buyers, this is a moment to act strategically. Inventory is higher, competition is lower, and financing is becoming more affordable.
For sellers, success depends on pricing correctly and ensuring your home stands out with strong presentation and marketing.
Thinking of Making a Move?
Every neighbourhood is moving differently. Let’s review your area’s data and craft a plan that fits the market today — not last year’s headlines. Book your private market review and discover where the real opportunities are.
📱 Phone: 647-504-0690
📧 Email: steven@mistersauga.ca
Your Trusted Partner in the GTA Real Estate Journey